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We present observations and modeling results of the propagation and impact at Earth of a high-latitude, extended filament channel eruption that commenced on 2015 July 9. The coronal mass ejection (CME) that resulted from the filament eruption was associated with a moderate disturbance at Earth. This event could be classified as a so-called “problem storm” because it lacked the usual solar signatures that are characteristic of large, energetic, Earth-directed CMEs that often result in significant geoeffective impacts. We use solar observations to constrain the initial parameters and therefore to model the propagation of the 2015 July 9 eruption from the solar corona up to Earth using 3D magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric simulations with three different configurations of the modeled CME. We find the best match between observed and modeled arrival at Earth for the simulation run that features a toroidal flux rope structure of the CME ejecta, but caution that different approaches may be more or less useful depending on the CME–observer geometry when evaluating the space weather impact of eruptions that are extreme in terms of their large size and high degree of asymmetry. We discuss our results in the context of both advancing our understanding of the physics of CME evolution and future improvements to space weather forecasting.

 

The trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are often seen to deviate substantially from a purely radial propagation direction. Such deviations occur predominantly in the corona and have been attributed to “channeling” or deflection of the eruptive flux by asymmetric ambient magnetic fields. Here, we investigate an additional mechanism that does not require any asymmetry of the preeruptive ambient field. Using magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulations, we show that the trajectories of CMEs through the solar corona can significantly deviate from the radial direction when propagation takes place in a unipolar radial field. We demonstrate that the deviation is most prominent below ∼15R_⊙and can be attributed to an “effectiveI×Bforce” that arises from the intrusion of a magnetic flux rope with a net axial electric current into a unipolar background field. These results are important for predictions of CME trajectories in the context of space-weather forecasts, as well as for reaching a deeper understanding of the fundamental physics underlying CME interactions with the ambient fields in the extended solar corona.

 

Context.Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of plasma from the Sun that travel through interplanetary space and may encounter Earth. CMEs often enclose a magnetic flux rope (MFR), the orientation of which largely determines the CMEs’ geoeffectiveness. Current operational CME models do not model MFRs, but a number of research ones do, including the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) model.

Aims.We report the sensitivity of OSPREI to a range of user-selected photospheric and coronal conditions.

Methods.We modeled four separate CMEs observed in situ by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We varied the input photospheric conditions using four input magnetograms (HMI Synchronic, HMI Synoptic, GONG Synoptic Zero-Point Corrected, and GONG ADAPT). To vary the coronal field reconstruction, we employed the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model and varied its source-surface height in the range 1.5–3.0R_⊙with 0.1R_⊙increments.

Results.We find that both the input magnetogram and PFSS source surface often affect the evolution of the CME as it propagates through the Sun’s corona into interplanetary space, and therefore the accuracy of the MFR prediction compared to in situ data at PSP. There is no obvious best combination of input magnetogram and PFSS source surface height.

Conclusions.The OSPREI model is moderately sensitive to the input photospheric and coronal conditions. Based on where the source region of the CME is located on the Sun, there may be best practices when selecting an input magnetogram to use.

 

This perspective article discusses the knowledge gaps and open questions regarding the solar and interplanetary drivers of space weather conditions experienced at Mars during active and quiescent solar periods, and the need for continuous, routine observations to address them. For both advancing science and as part of the strategic planning for human exploration at Mars by the late 2030s, now is the time to consider a network of upstream space weather monitors at Mars. Our main recommendations for the heliophysics community are the following: 1. Support the advancement for understanding heliophysics and space weather science at ∼1.5 AU and continue the support of planetary science payloads and missions that provide such measurements. 2. Prioritize an upstream Mars L1 monitor and/or areostationary orbiters for providing dedicated, continuous observations of solar activity and interplanetary conditions at ∼1.5 AU. 3. Establish new or support existing 1) joint efforts between federal agencies and their divisions and 2) international collaborations to carry out #1 and #2. 

Streamer-blowout coronal mass ejections (SBO-CMEs) are the dominant CME population during solar minimum. Although they are typically slow and lack clear low-coronal signatures, they can cause geomagnetic storms. With the aid of extrapolated coronal fields and remote observations of the off-limb low corona, we study the initiation of an SBO-CME preceded by consecutive CME eruptions consistent with a multi-stage sympathetic breakout scenario. From inner-heliospheric Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations, it is evident that the SBO-CME is interacting with the heliospheric magnetic field and plasma sheet structures draped about the CME flux rope. We estimate that 18 ± 11% of the CME’s azimuthal magnetic flux has been eroded through magnetic reconnection and that this erosion began after a heliospheric distance of ∼0.35 AU from the Sun was reached. This observational study has important implications for understanding the initiation of SBO-CMEs and their interaction with the heliospheric surroundings. 

Magnetic flux ropes manifest as twisted bundles of magnetic field lines. They carry significant amounts of solar mass in the heliosphere. This paper underlines the need to advance our understanding of the fundamental physics of heliospheric flux ropes and provides the motivation to significantly improve the status quo of flux rope research through novel and requisite approaches. It briefly discusses the current understanding of flux rope formation and evolution, and summarizes the strategies that have been undertaken to understand the dynamics of heliospheric structures. The challenges and recommendations put forward to address them are expected to broaden the in-depth knowledge of our nearest star, its dynamics, and its role in its region of influence, the heliosphere. 

This perspective paper brings to light the need for comprehensive studies on the evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) complexity during propagation. To date, few studies of ICME complexity exist. Here, we define ICME complexity and associated changes in complexity, describe recent works and their limitations, and outline key science questions that need to be tackled. Fundamental research on ICME complexity changes from the solar corona to 1 AU and beyond is critical to our physical understanding of the evolution and interaction of transients in the inner heliosphere. Furthermore, a comprehensive understanding of such changes is required to understand the space weather impact of ICMEs at different heliospheric locations and to improve on predictive space weather models.